(January 10, 2025)

Kelly: Iran, which had a pretty lousy 2024, weakened internally, mounting pressures externally. We interviewed Jake Sullivan, the national security, the national security adviser at the White House the other day. He told me the big question on his mind is, given the losses Iran has sustained, will it make it more likely, more likely that Iran tries to go for a nuclear weapon? Director Burns, will it?

Burns: It‘s something we watch very intently, because you‘re right, Iran has it‘s strategic position has suffered considerably over the course of the last six or seven months. You know, two failed efforts to launch significant ballistic missile strikes against Israel, the collapse of its leading proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the severe degradation of Hamas in Gaza, and then the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. All of that, I think, strategically puts the Iranian regime in a much weaker position. And so Jake Sullivan was right to express the concern that, you know, the Iranian regime could decide in the face of that weakness that it needs to restore its deterrence as it sees it and, you know, reverse the decision made at the end of 2003 to suspend their weaponization program. We do not see any sign today that any such decision has been made, but we obviously watch it intently.