(03.02.2024)
Archiv: US Central Bank Federal Reserve (Fed)
Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at 22-year high, signals one more hike in ‘23
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at a 22-year high on Wednesday while signaling another rate hike will be needed later this year to bring inflation back to its 2% target.
CRITICAL FOUNDATIONS: PROTECTING AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURES – The Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection
(13.10.1997)
Existing Information Sharing Efforts
(…) We also found a great deal of information sharing already underway. Trade associations, consortia, and other groups exchange information among their members and, in some cases, directly with government. Many federal, state and local government agencies have existing relationships with infrastructure owners and operators. Within all the infrastructure sectors, at least some portions are subject to regulatory control by government agencies, and information is shared, albeit sometimes within carefully defined constraints. Several federal agencies provide information to infrastructure owners and operators. The FBI’s Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) program gives over 25,000 industry members information that provides threat and vulnerability insights. More narrowly focused programs are the Department of Transportation’s terrorist threat notification to the civil aviation industry and the National Security Agency’s INFOSEC Vulnerability Assessment Program, which provides information systems-related data to private sector partners. The Comptroller of the Currency operates another system providing advisories on information integrity and security risks to financial institutions.
(…)
The third and least predictable threat to the infrastructure comes from deliberate attack. Depending on their objectives, attackers may seek to steal, modify, or destroy data stored in information systems or moving over networks, or to degrade the operation of the systems and net-works themselves, denying service to their users. Attackers include national intelligence organizations, information warriors, terrorists, criminals, industrial competitors, hackers, and aggrieved or disloyal insiders. While insiders constitute the single largest known security threat to information and information systems, controlled testing indicates that large numbers of computer based attacks go undetected, and that the unknown component of the threat may exceed the known component by orders of magnitude.
(…)
The air traffic control system of the FAA is based on decades old technology. The replacement system, while doubtless more efficient, will be more vulnerable unless special security measures are incorporated.
(…)
The Commission recommends the Secretary of Transportation:
1) Fully evaluate actual and potential sources of interference to, and vulnerabilities of, GPS before a final decision is reached to eliminate all other radiovnavigation and aircraft landing guidance systems.
2) Sponsor a risk assessment for GPS-based systems used by the civilian sector, projected from now through the year 2010.
3) Base decisions regarding the proper federal navigation systems mix and the final architecture of the NAS on the results of that assessment. The DOT and FAA must develop a better understanding of interference and other vulnerabilities of GPS before a final decision is reached concerning the status of all other radionavigation and landing guidance systems. A federally sponsored thorough, integrated risk assessment would lay a sound foundation for decisions on future courses of action.
The National Airspace System
The Commission recommends the FAA act immediately to develop, establish, fund, and implement a comprehensive National Airspace System Security Program to protect the modernized NAS from information-based and other disruptions, intrusions and attack. Program implementation should be guided by the recommendations found in the Vulnerability Assessment of the NAS Architecture, prepared for the Commission. The Vulnerability Assessment included the following recommendations: (…)
3) The FAA should consider the implementation of full “trusted” hardware and software security capabilities for only the FAA’s most vulnerable future subsystems, since the software cost for embedded applications, together with full audit, tracking, and monitoring, may be too great if applied to all subsystems. Relaxation of the full capabilities, such as less rapid revalidation (e.g., a slower fifteen minutes down time) and less constant vigilance of data integrity, should be considered on a case-by-case basis for less critical subsystems, particularly in situations where existing air traffic control recovery procedures exist.
4) The FAA should conduct a comprehensive investment analysis of NAS INFOSEC in order to determine the degree of security protection that is needed
(…)
Transportation: A critical infrastructure characterized by the physical distribution system critical to supporting the national security and economic well-being of this nation, including the national airspace system, airlines and aircraft, and airports; roads and highways,trucking and personal vehicles; ports and waterways and the vessels operating thereon; mass transit, both rail and bus; pipelines, including natural gas, petroleum, and other hazardous materials; freight and long haul passenger rail; and delivery services.
Notenbank-Konferenz in USA – Inflation: EZB setzt auf straffe Zinspolitik
Der Kampf gegen die hohe Inflation ist nach den Worten der Präsidentin der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB), Christine Lagarde, noch nicht gewonnen. Das bedeute, dass die EZB so lange an einer strikten Geldpolitik festhalten müsse, bis eine mittelfristige Teuerungsrate von zwei Prozent erreicht werde, sagte Lagarde am Freitag auf der Notenbank-Konferenz in Jackson Hole in den USA.
Bank-of-England-Vize: Wohl „einige Zeit“ weiter hohe Zinsen
Die Folgen des Preisanstiegs würden wahrscheinlich nicht so schnell verschwinden, wie sie entstanden seien, sagte der Vizegouverneur der Bank of England (BoE), Ben Broadbent, laut Redetext gestern auf dem Treffen von Zentralbankern und Ökonominnen in Jackson Hole im US-Staat Wyoming.
„Vor diesem Hintergrund könnte die Geldpolitik noch einige Zeit restriktiv bleiben.“
Bank of England warns UK rates need to remain high for some time
(Sat 26-08-2023)
“It’s unlikely that these second-round effects will unwind as rapidly as they emerged,” Broadbent said at the Federal Reserve’s annual gathering of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “As such, monetary policy may well have to remain in restrictive territory for some time yet.”
The BOE has raised rates 14 times in a row to 5.25%, the highest level in almost 16 years, to tame inflation.
Dollar steady as Fed‘s Powell says higher rates may be needed
(August 25, 2023)
Powell, in a speech at an economic summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said policymakers would „proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further,“ but also made clear that the central bank has not yet concluded that its benchmark interest rate is high enough to be sure that inflation returns to the 2% target.
How Jackson Hole Became an Economic Obsession
(Aug. 24, 2023)
The most hotly anticipated event is a speech by the Fed chair that typically takes place on Friday morning and is often used as a chance for the central bank to send a signal about policy. Jerome H. Powell, the current Fed head, has made headlines with each and every one of his Jackson Hole speeches, which has investors waiting anxiously for this year’s. It is the only part of the closed-door conference that is broadcast to the public.
Fed Raises Interest Rates to 22-Year High, Leaves Door Open for More
(26.07.2023)
The quarter percentage-point hike, a unanimous decision, boosted the target range for the Fed’s benchmark federal funds rate to 5.25% to 5.5%, the highest level in 22 years.
Zehntes Mal in Folge: US-Notenbank Fed erhöht Leitzins erneut
Mit einem erneuten Zinssprung um 0,25 Prozentpunkte liegt dieser nun in der Spanne von 5,0 bis 5,25 Prozent, wie die Federal Reserve am Mittwoch mitteilte. Das ist der höchste Wert seit 2007 – also vor Beginn der weltweiten Finanzkrise.
Damit hat der jüngste Bankenkollaps in den USA – der Zusammenbruch der First Republic Bank – die Fed nicht davon abgehalten, weiter leicht an der Zinsschraube zu drehen.
U.S. Quietly Revises Q4 Inflation Up, Bombshell January CPI On Deck
While the rest of America was gearing up for the Super Bowl Sunday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised Q4 inflation numbers higher on Friday.
This is actually huge news.
Preprogrammed algos bought billions in stock off of November and December CPI off of faulty assumptions about inflation going away easily, which sparked the huge rally.
The inflation revisions are a double whammy.
This is the economic buzzword we should all be paying attention to
Over the past year, an alphabet soup of otherwise wonky economic statistics have become household names as American families suffered through the worst inflation in 40 years: CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index), PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures and ECI (Employment Cost Index).
Stock market news today: Stocks soar as investors look ahead to inflation data
Tuesday‘s CPI reading will come as investors recalibrate expectations for high interest rates will go this year after Fed Chair Jerome Powell implied in a speech last week that the battle against inflation was in its early stages. For much of the year, many were betting the U.S. central bank would pause its interest rate hiking campaign this year.
Euro forecast to be worth less than a dollar after Christine Lagarde’s ‘kamikaze’ rate rises
He said: “It‘s like the ghost of Trichet has come back and taken over.”
Recession fears driven by soaring gas prices and looming blackouts pushed the euro to a 20-year low of $0.9536 against the dollar in September.
U.S. stocks had their worst day in nearly three weeks on Monday as protests in China raised global-growth risks and Fed said more interest-rate increases will be needed to subdue inflation.
(…)
U.S. Net Worth Statistics: The State of Wealth in 2022
For the fourth quarter of 2019, total wealth in the U.S. was $111.04 trillion.
How the latest Fed rate hike will affect your credit card bill
Collectively, Americans have nearly $900 billion dollars in credit card debt, and if you carry a balance, your bill is about to get more expensive, as the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate for the fifth time this year. Currently, the average interest rate on a new credit card offer is more than 21%, according to LendingTree’s Matt Schulz. “You can expect that average to go up to over 22% in the next couple of months because banks don’t tend to waste a lot of time on raising rates when the Fed does,” Schulz said.
Angst vor Schulden: US-Zinssprung mit weltweiten Folgen
Das Hauptproblem: Die hohen Zinssätze treiben den US-Dollar in die Höhe – zum Nachteil anderer Länder. Denn nicht nur Importe werden teurer, sondern auch die Bedienung von Krediten. Die straffe Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank bekommen daher vor allem einkommensschwächere Länder zu spüren, die sich während der Pandemie hoch verschuldet und ihre Kredite in US-Dollar aufgenommen haben – selbst aber keine Dollars verdienen.
China‘s yuan slid to the weakest in two years as hawkish Fed signals more rate hikes
Another driver is from the government‘s side, as Chinese authorities were tolerant of a „gradually“ weaker yuan, which can benefit exporters by making the price of their goods more competitive.
Bank of England und SNB: Weitere Notenbanken erhöhen Zinsen
n der Schweiz ist die Inflation allerdings wegen des starken Frankens vergleichsweise gering. Im Mai lag sie bei 2,9 Prozent. Für das Gesamtjahr 2022 wird nun nach SNB-Angaben eine Teuerung der Verbraucherpreise um 2,8 Prozent erwartet. Ohne die Leitzinserhöhung würde die Prognose „deutlich höher“ ausfallen, so die SNB.
„Es wäre fahrlässig, wenn man inflationäre Entwicklung nicht berücksichtigt“, sagte SNB-Präsident Thomas Jordan.
SNB vollzieht Wende – Warum heben Sie die Zinsen an, Herr Jordan?
Eigentlich sind die Notenbanken schon vor Jahren dazu übergegangen, die Finanzmärkte nicht zu überraschen. Es wurde immer angedeutet, wohin die Reise geht. Sie haben die Finanzmärkte jetzt aber doch überrascht, mit einer früheren und stärkeren Zinserhöhung als man das gedacht hätte. Ist das ein Indiz dafür, dass der Entscheid erst in den letzten Stunden gereift ist?
Nein.
Is recession the Bank of England’s only choice?
With inflation still climbing, today the Bank of England has brought out the big guns, raising interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25 per cent – pushing the cost of borrowing to its highest since February 2009. It joins the US Federal Reserve, its cousin across the Atlantic, which yesterday raised rates by 0.75 percentage points – its biggest rise in almost 30 years.
Mortgage rates hit 5.78 percent in record spike
That means a monthly mortgage payment on a roughly median-valued $400,000 home, after a 20 percent down payment, would now be $1,874. Last year, the monthly payment on the same home would have been $1,335 — a difference of more than $500.
On The Money — Biden tamps down recession fears as Dow plunges
President Biden on Thursday said that a recession is not inevitable in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates at the quickest pace in nearly 30 years.
“First of all, it’s not inevitable,” Biden told The Associated Press in an exclusive interview. “Secondly, we’re in a stronger position than any nation in the world to overcome this inflation.”
Fed‘s aggressive rate hikes raise likelihood of a recession
Each rate hike means higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. And each time would-be borrowers find loan rates prohibitively expensive, the resulting drop in spending weakens confidence, job growth and overall economic vigor.
“There’s a path for us to get there,“ Powell said Wednesday, referring to a soft landing. „It’s not getting easier. It’s getting more challenging”
It was always going to tough: The Fed hasn’t managed to engineer a soft landing since the mid-1990s.
Opinion: The Fed‘s latest rate hike will be a disaster for the economy
Using the Federal Reserve‘s rule of thumb that for every $1 loss in wealth, households reduce spending by 4 cents, the decline in asset prices to date will almost certainly result in consumers cutting back spending.
Such a prospectively large decline in consumer spending is the last thing that an already slowing US economy needs. This is especially the case at a time when consumer spending is already being constrained by sky high gasoline and food prices.
Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points for first time since 1994
(15.06.2022)
“The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are weighing on global economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions,” the FOMC said in a statement announcing the interest rate hike.
CRITICAL FOUNDATIONS: PROTECTING AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURES – The Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection
(13.10.1997)
Existing Information Sharing Efforts
(…) We also found a great deal of information sharing already underway. Trade associations, consortia, and other groups exchange information among their members and, in some cases, directly with government. Many federal, state and local government agencies have existing relationships with infrastructure owners and operators. Within all the infrastructure sectors, at least some portions are subject to regulatory control by government agencies, and information is shared, albeit sometimes within carefully defined constraints. Several federal agencies provide information to infrastructure owners and operators. The FBI’s Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) program gives over 25,000 industry members information that provides threat and vulnerability insights. More narrowly focused programs are the Department of Transportation’s terrorist threat notification to the civil aviation industry and the National Security Agency’s INFOSEC Vulnerability Assessment Program, which provides information systems-related data to private sector partners. The Comptroller of the Currency operates another system providing advisories on information integrity and security risks to financial institutions.
(…)
The third and least predictable threat to the infrastructure comes from deliberate attack. Depending on their objectives, attackers may seek to steal, modify, or destroy data stored in information systems or moving over networks, or to degrade the operation of the systems and net-works themselves, denying service to their users. Attackers include national intelligence organizations, information warriors, terrorists, criminals, industrial competitors, hackers, and aggrieved or disloyal insiders. While insiders constitute the single largest known security threat to information and information systems, controlled testing indicates that large numbers of computer based attacks go undetected, and that the unknown component of the threat may exceed the known component by orders of magnitude.
(…)
The air traffic control system of the FAA is based on decades old technology. The replacement system, while doubtless more efficient, will be more vulnerable unless special security measures are incorporated.
(…)
The Commission recommends the Secretary of Transportation:
1) Fully evaluate actual and potential sources of interference to, and vulnerabilities of, GPS before a final decision is reached to eliminate all other radiovnavigation and aircraft landing guidance systems.
2) Sponsor a risk assessment for GPS-based systems used by the civilian sector, projected from now through the year 2010.
3) Base decisions regarding the proper federal navigation systems mix and the final architecture of the NAS on the results of that assessment. The DOT and FAA must develop a better understanding of interference and other vulnerabilities of GPS before a final decision is reached concerning the status of all other radionavigation and landing guidance systems. A federally sponsored thorough, integrated risk assessment would lay a sound foundation for decisions on future courses of action.
The National Airspace System
The Commission recommends the FAA act immediately to develop, establish, fund, and implement a comprehensive National Airspace System Security Program to protect the modernized NAS from information-based and other disruptions, intrusions and attack. Program implementation should be guided by the recommendations found in the Vulnerability Assessment of the NAS Architecture, prepared for the Commission. The Vulnerability Assessment included the following recommendations: (…)
3) The FAA should consider the implementation of full “trusted” hardware and software security capabilities for only the FAA’s most vulnerable future subsystems, since the software cost for embedded applications, together with full audit, tracking, and monitoring, may be too great if applied to all subsystems. Relaxation of the full capabilities, such as less rapid revalidation (e.g., a slower fifteen minutes down time) and less constant vigilance of data integrity, should be considered on a case-by-case basis for less critical subsystems, particularly in situations where existing air traffic control recovery procedures exist.
4) The FAA should conduct a comprehensive investment analysis of NAS INFOSEC in order to determine the degree of security protection that is needed
(…)
Transportation: A critical infrastructure characterized by the physical distribution system critical to supporting the national security and economic well-being of this nation, including the national airspace system, airlines and aircraft, and airports; roads and highways,trucking and personal vehicles; ports and waterways and the vessels operating thereon; mass transit, both rail and bus; pipelines, including natural gas, petroleum, and other hazardous materials; freight and long haul passenger rail; and delivery services.
CRITICAL FOUNDATIONS: PROTECTING AMERICA’S INFRASTRUCTURES – The Report of the President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection
(13.10.1997)
Existing Information Sharing Efforts
(…) We also found a great deal of information sharing already underway. Trade associations, consortia, and other groups exchange information among their members and, in some cases, directly with government. Many federal, state and local government agencies have existing relationships with infrastructure owners and operators. Within all the infrastructure sectors, at least some portions are subject to regulatory control by government agencies, and information is shared, albeit sometimes within carefully defined constraints. Several federal agencies provide information to infrastructure owners and operators. The FBI’s Awareness of National Security Issues and Response (ANSIR) program gives over 25,000 industry members information that provides threat and vulnerability insights. More narrowly focused programs are the Department of Transportation’s terrorist threat notification to the civil aviation industry and the National Security Agency’s INFOSEC Vulnerability Assessment Program, which provides information systems-related data to private sector partners. The Comptroller of the Currency operates another system providing advisories on information integrity and security risks to financial institutions.
(…)
The third and least predictable threat to the infrastructure comes from deliberate attack. Depending on their objectives, attackers may seek to steal, modify, or destroy data stored in information systems or moving over networks, or to degrade the operation of the systems and net-works themselves, denying service to their users. Attackers include national intelligence organizations, information warriors, terrorists, criminals, industrial competitors, hackers, and aggrieved or disloyal insiders. While insiders constitute the single largest known security threat to information and information systems, controlled testing indicates that large numbers of computer based attacks go undetected, and that the unknown component of the threat may exceed the known component by orders of magnitude.
(…)
The air traffic control system of the FAA is based on decades old technology. The replacement system, while doubtless more efficient, will be more vulnerable unless special security measures are incorporated.
(…)
The Commission recommends the Secretary of Transportation:
1) Fully evaluate actual and potential sources of interference to, and vulnerabilities of, GPS before a final decision is reached to eliminate all other radiovnavigation and aircraft landing guidance systems.
2) Sponsor a risk assessment for GPS-based systems used by the civilian sector, projected from now through the year 2010.
3) Base decisions regarding the proper federal navigation systems mix and the final architecture of the NAS on the results of that assessment. The DOT and FAA must develop a better understanding of interference and other vulnerabilities of GPS before a final decision is reached concerning the status of all other radionavigation and landing guidance systems. A federally sponsored thorough, integrated risk assessment would lay a sound foundation for decisions on future courses of action.
The National Airspace System
The Commission recommends the FAA act immediately to develop, establish, fund, and implement a comprehensive National Airspace System Security Program to protect the modernized NAS from information-based and other disruptions, intrusions and attack. Program implementation should be guided by the recommendations found in the Vulnerability Assessment of the NAS Architecture, prepared for the Commission. The Vulnerability Assessment included the following recommendations: (…)
3) The FAA should consider the implementation of full “trusted” hardware and software security capabilities for only the FAA’s most vulnerable future subsystems, since the software cost for embedded applications, together with full audit, tracking, and monitoring, may be too great if applied to all subsystems. Relaxation of the full capabilities, such as less rapid revalidation (e.g., a slower fifteen minutes down time) and less constant vigilance of data integrity, should be considered on a case-by-case basis for less critical subsystems, particularly in situations where existing air traffic control recovery procedures exist.
4) The FAA should conduct a comprehensive investment analysis of NAS INFOSEC in order to determine the degree of security protection that is needed
(…)
Transportation: A critical infrastructure characterized by the physical distribution system critical to supporting the national security and economic well-being of this nation, including the national airspace system, airlines and aircraft, and airports; roads and highways,trucking and personal vehicles; ports and waterways and the vessels operating thereon; mass transit, both rail and bus; pipelines, including natural gas, petroleum, and other hazardous materials; freight and long haul passenger rail; and delivery services.
Fed’s Kashkari Urges Congress to Act, Suggests Fresh Lockdown
U.S. lawmakers and the Trump administration are wrangling after enhanced unemployment aid for as many as 30 million jobless Americans expired. Democrats and Republicans are looking for common ground on the jobless benefits and other help for an economy sagging under the weight of pandemic-induced shutdowns.
US-Notenbanker fordert „harten Lockdown“
Der Wirtschaft könne eine starke Erholung gelingen, aber nur, wenn das Virus unter Kontrolle gebracht werde, sagte Kashkari dem Sender CBS. „Wenn wir das nicht tun, und wenn wir nur dieses grassierende Virus haben, das sich im ganzen Land ausbreitet mit wiederholten Ausbrüchen und lokalen Lockdowns in den nächsten ein oder zwei Jahren, was durchaus möglich ist, werden wir viele, viele weitere Firmenpleiten erleben.“
Die Corona-Krise löste in den USA einen Konjunktursturz aus und wirft die größte Volkswirtschaft der Welt um Jahre zurück.
Big banks are growing due to coronavirus — that‘s an ominous sign
(01.05.2020)
Collectively, the ten largest U.S. banks expanded by more than $1.2 trillion in the first quarter of 2020. JPMorgan alone grew by nearly 20 percent, becoming the United States’ first bank with $3 trillion in assets. The bank took in $273 billion in new deposits in just three months. That’s equivalent to JPMorgan acquiring PNC Bank — the country’s seventh largest depository institution.
The U.S. plans to lend $500 billion to large companies. It won’t require them to preserve jobs or limit executive pay.
Democrats asked for restrictions on how companies can use the money from the central bank’s bond purchases but were rebuffed by the administration during negotiations about the Cares Act, said a spokesman for Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.).