One of the strongest indicators of whether people or businesses are actually fleeing from a city is the housing and real estate market. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when many residents really did leave New York for the surrounding suburbs and other states, the city’s vacancy rates soared and rents dropped with demand, leading to “COVID discounts” at the height of the pandemic. This trend was even more extreme for the city’s commercial real estate, where vacancy rates doubled as more companies adopted remote work and shed office space.
Today nearly every indicator points to the opposite problem: demand is running hot and supply is lagging badly, especially when it comes to housing.