Archiv: solar cycle 25


26.12.2022 - 06:31 [ Electroverse.co ]

Cold Records Shattered Across Canada, Driving Energy Usage To All-Time Highs; Extreme Freeze Sweeps U.S.; Blizzards Hit Hawaii; + Wintry Weather Traps 300 Oil Workers On North Sea Rig

(December 21, 2022)

As hinted at above, Mauna Loa began erupting on Nov 27 and stopped on Dec 13.

It was the first time it has actively erupted since 1984 (solar minimum of cycle 20) — and is a sign of the times…

Volcanic eruptions are one of the key climatic forcings driving Earth into its next bout of global cooling. They have been shown to increase in both number and explosivity during times of prolonged solar decline, which is thought to be due to an influx of cosmic rays (CRs) penetrating/exciting silica-rich magma. During solar mins the Sun’s magnetic field weakens and the outward pressure of the solar wind decreases, which allows more CRs to enter the inner solar system, including our planet’s atmosphere.

26.12.2022 - 06:11 [ Electroverse.co ]

Cold Wave Grips East Asia, Felling All-Time Snowfall Records Across Japan; Historic Snow In Moscow; + Christmas Freeze: Extreme Cold/Snow To Blast North America Over The Holidays

(December 19, 2022)

The COLD TIMES are returning, North America, in line with historically low solar activity.

14.11.2021 - 11:19 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

Solar Activity Forecast for the Next Decade

(12.06.2019)

The results show that the next Solar Cycle will start in 2020 and reach a maximum in 2025.Cycle 25 is expected to be even weaker than the current solar cycle.

According to this forecast, upcoming solar activity will be the weakest in the last 200 years.

14.11.2021 - 10:24 [ Electroverse.net ]

From New Mexico to New England: More Than 100 Million Americans Under ‘Cold Weather Warnings’, + AGW/COVID Cults

So-called ‘climate experts’ are pointing to this year’s wild temperature swings as the direct impact of “global climate change” — but there is a far more likely culprit that is being willfully ignored: The Sun, the source of our climate system’s energy, is currently in a historically weak state–a fact nobody is disputing. Frustratingly though, investigating the impact such reduced solar output could have on the climate (via the weakening of the jet streams, among other forcings) has been labelled heresy, and there are very few academics left with the gumption to openly discuss it, let alone study it–not that they’ed ever receive funding.

25.10.2021 - 18:30 [ Electroverse.net ]

Solar Cycle 25 Progressing Similarly to 24, + Fairbanks sees Record-Breaking Snowfall

(October 6, 2021)

The official forecast by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (made in 2019, and visualized by the red line above) called for a weak cycle 25, peaking in July 2025. And while things are currently tracking slightly ahead of schedule, NOAA don’t believe that the cycle will peak any higher than SC24. Instead, they simply see the peak arriving earlier, in late-2024 (rather than mid-2025). If this plays out it would of course mean an earlier start to Solar Cycle 26, too …

14.12.2020 - 17:11 [ mprnews.org ]

Solar storm fizzles, but ‚Solar Cycle 25‘ is just starting

„The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.“

15.09.2020 - 21:04 [ NASA ]

NASA, NOAA to Discuss Solar Cycle Prediction During Media Teleconference

Tuesday, 9/15/2020

NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will discuss predictions for the upcoming solar cycle during a media teleconference at 1 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Sept. 15. Tracking the solar cycle is a key part of better understanding the Sun and mitigating its impacts on human technology and infrastructure.

During the teleconference, experts on the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel will discuss recent updates in solar cycle progress, and the forecast for the upcoming cycle, Solar Cycle 25.

15.09.2020 - 13:26 [ EOS.org ]

The Thermosphere Responds to a Weaker Than Normal Solar Cycle

(05.04.2019)

The cooling near solar minimum is natural and specific to the thermosphere. The cooling thermosphere does not affect the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface where people live. The temperatures we experience on the ground do not get colder because of this solar cycle. NASA and other climate researchers continue to see a warming trend in the troposphere. These two effects are ongoing but unrelated.

Nitric oxide and carbon dioxide play important roles in cooling the thermosphere.

14.05.2020 - 20:55 [ Unilad.co.uk ]

The Sun Has Entered ‘Very Deep’ Solar Minimum

(today)

While these things are still ongoing debates, one thing that NASA did find to happen during solar minimum was an increased number of galactic cosmic rays that reach Earth’s upper atmosphere.

Galactic cosmic rays are high energy particles accelerated toward the solar system by distant supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy.

02.01.2020 - 14:36 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration

(12.06.2019)

The Sun‘s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one.

01.11.2019 - 06:29 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration

(12.06.2019)

The Sun‘s activity rises and falls in an 11-year cycle. The forecast for the next solar cycle says it will be the weakest of the last 200 years. The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot number, a standard measure of solar activity level – could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one. The results show that the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

11.08.2019 - 14:14 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

The Space Station Crosses a Spotless Sun

(15.07.2019)

Transiting the Sun is not very unusual for the ISS, which orbits the Earth about every 90 minutes, but getting one‘s timing and equipment just right for a great image is rare. Strangely, besides that fake spot, in this recent two-image composite, the Sun lacked any real sunspots. The featured picture combines two images — one capturing the space station transiting the Sun — and another taken consecutively capturing details of the Sun‘s surface. Sunspots have been rare on the Sun since the dawn of the current Solar Minimum, a period of low solar activity. For reasons not yet fully understood, the number of sunspots occurring during both the previous and current solar minima have been unusually low.

11.08.2019 - 14:03 [ Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF) ]

Solar Cycle 25: May Be The Smallest In Over 300 Years

(26.01.2012)

Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.

This is figure 2 from their paper:

Livingston and Penn have been tracking the decline in sunspot magnetic field, predicting that sunspots will disappear when the umbral magnetic field strength falls below 1,500 gauss, as per this figure from their 2010 paper:

11.08.2019 - 13:58 [ NationalGeographic.com ]

Sun Headed Into Hibernation, Solar Studies Predict: Sunspots may disappear altogether in next cycle.

(14.06.2011)

This time, however, the rush to the poles is more of a crawl, which means we could be headed toward a very weak solar maximum in 2013—and it may delay or even prevent the start of the next solar cycle.

Taken together, the three lines of evidence strongly hint that Solar Cycle 25 may be a bust, the scientists said today during a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

11.08.2019 - 13:45 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

Long Range Solar Forecast: Solar Cycle 25 peaking around 2022 could be one of the weakest in centuries.

(10.05.2006)

How do you observe a belt that plunges 200,000 km below the surface of the sun?

„We do it using sunspots,“ Hathaway explains. Sunspots are magnetic knots that bubble up from the base of the conveyor belt, eventually popping through the surface of the sun. Astronomers have long known that sunspots have a tendency to drift—from mid solar latitudes toward the sun‘s equator. According to current thinking, this drift is caused by the motion of the conveyor belt. „By measuring the drift of sunspot groups,“ says Hathaway, „we indirectly measure the speed of the belt.“

13.07.2019 - 16:48 [ National Aeronautics and Space Administration ]

Solar Activity Forecast for Next Decade Favorable for Exploration

(12.06.2019)

Previously, researchers used the number of sunspots to represent indirectly the activity of the solar magnetic field. The new approach takes advantage of direct observations of magnetic fields emerging on the surface of the Sun – data which has only existed for the last four solar cycles.

13.07.2019 - 16:48 [ ScienceOfCycles.com ]

BREAKING NEWS: NASA Predicts Solar Cycle 25 Weakest in Last 200 Years

(14.06.2019)

The maximum of this next cycle – measured in terms of sunspot numbers, could be 30 to 50% lower than the most recent one – Cycle 24. The results show the next cycle will start in 2020 and reach its maximum in 2025.

25.05.2019 - 15:17 [ Phys.org ]

Scientists predict sun‘s activity will be weak during next solar cycle

(08.04.2019)

„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“

29.04.2019 - 12:48 [ Nature.com ]

Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and geologists don’t know why

(9. Januar 2019)

The magnetic pole is moving so quickly that it has forced the world’s geomagnetism experts into a rare move.

On 15 January, they are set to update the World Magnetic Model, which describes the planet’s magnetic field and underlies all modern navigation, from the systems that steer ships at sea to Google Maps on smartphones.

29.04.2019 - 12:35 [ British Geological Survey ]

World Magnetic Model (WMM)

The World Magnetic Model (WMM) is a standard model of the core and large-scale crustal magnetic field. It is used extensively for navigation and in attitude and heading referencing systems by the UK Ministry of Defence, the US Department of Defense, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the International Hydrographic Organization.

(…)

The WMM is a model of the core and large-scale crustal fields only. However the satellite data contain unwanted signals such as small-scale crustal, external ionospheric and magnetospheric and their induced counterparts. These fields would have added noise to the WMM2015 SV model and could have biased its estimates.

BGS employed two techniques to avoid the contamination caused by external magnetic fields. Firstly we rejected those data most contaminated by these sources, as identified by a combination of local time, geomagnetic indices and solar wind data. ……..

29.04.2019 - 12:19 [ Met Office Space ‏/ Twitter ]

Today‘s Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) Solar Synoptic Map. No sunspots are currently visible and this continues the very low solar activity.

(28. April 2019)

29.04.2019 - 10:51 [ Phys.org ]

Scientists predict sun‘s activity will be weak during next solar cycle

(8. April 2019)

„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“

14.04.2019 - 19:50 [ Washington Post ]

Scientists predict a new solar cycle is about to begin and that it might be stronger than the last one

(11. April 2019)

The decline in sunspot activity through cycle 24 was worrisome to some space weather scientists in that it suggested a return to a lengthy “solar drought,” reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum period of 1645-1715. Records show the sun was essentially spotless for this lengthy period, coinciding with the “Little Ice Age” in Europe and tickling the interest of scientists to wonder whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between solar behavior and Earth’s climate.

14.04.2019 - 19:47 [ Phys.org ]

Scientists predict sun‘s activity will be weak during next solar cycle

(8. April 2019)

„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“

29.03.2019 - 10:02 [ Forbes ]

Earth‘s Magnetic North Pole Has Officially Moved

Earth‘s magnetic North Pole has drifted so fast that authorities have had to officially redefine the location of the magnetic North Pole. The extreme wandering of the North Pole caused increasing concerns over navigation, especially in high latitudes.

29.03.2019 - 09:05 [ CBC.ca ]

The sun is quieter than normal, but don‘t panic

(11.3.2019)

Over the past three decades, the sun has been consistently dropping in activity. Maximum has been quieter than is typical; minimum has been particularly quiet. And this has caused some to make the false assumption that, as a result, Earth is going to cool.

29.03.2019 - 08:41 [ Nature.com ]

Earth’s magnetic field is acting up and geologists don’t know why

(9.1.2019)

Something strange is going on at the top of the world. Earth’s north magnetic pole has been skittering away from Canada and towards Siberia, driven by liquid iron sloshing within the planet’s core. The magnetic pole is moving so quickly that it has forced the world’s geomagnetism experts into a rare move.

29.03.2019 - 08:25 [ NationalGeographic.com ]

Sun Is Moving Slower Than Thought

(12.5.2012)

„Having learned for nearly three decades about it, I was literally shocked when we found it was missing.“

(…)

Still, considering the rays‘ expected effects, Redfield said, „it seems obvious to me that there will be scenarios or times when the cosmic-ray flux on a planet is important and [is] having a major influence on the evolution of the planetary atmosphere or even on biological processes on its surface.“

29.03.2019 - 08:23 [ NationalGeographic.com ]

Surprise: Solar System „Force Field“ Shrinks Fast

(1.10.2010)

„If we‘ve learned anything from IBEX so far, it is that the models that we‘re using for interaction of the solar wind with the galaxy were just dead wrong,“ David McComas, principal investigator for the IBEX program, said during a NASA press conference Thursday.

For starters, it‘s been assumed that the heliosphere‘s expansion and contraction follows the sun‘s roughly 11-year activity cycle, during which the flow rate of charged particles, or solar wind, fluctuates.

08.12.2018 - 15:32 [ Huffington Post ]

Waiting For The Next Sunspot Cycle: 2019-2030

(6.12.2017) By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all,

08.12.2018 - 14:31 [ Space.com ]

No Global Cooling Miracle: Sun‘s Activity Lull Will Stop Soon, Study Suggests

We can‘t count on waning solar activity to help bail us out of our climate-change problem in the near future, a new study suggests.

08.12.2018 - 14:24 [ Firstpost.com ]

Mini ice-age, planet cooling from natural dip in Sun‘s heat ruled out: Study

A team of scientists from the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences and Department of Physical Sciences at Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata led by Prantika Bhowmik and Professor Dibyendu Nandi have dismissed the speculation ofessor Dibyendu Nandi have dismissed the speculation and claim ……………………..

01.10.2018 - 20:27 [ Astrophysical Journal Letters ]

Ultraviolet Flux Decrease Under a Grand Minimum from IUE Short-wavelength Observation of Solar Analogs

(27.12.2017) From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum.

01.10.2018 - 20:21 [ Huffington Post ]

Waiting For The Next Sunspot Cycle: 2019-2030

(6.12.2017) By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all,

01.10.2018 - 20:14 [ Washington Post ]

The sun is spotless and serene: What does it mean?

(30.7.2018) They believe that Cycle 25 will be smaller than the current cycle by approximately 25 percent.