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(12.06.2019)
The results show that the next Solar Cycle will start in 2020 and reach a maximum in 2025.Cycle 25 is expected to be even weaker than the current solar cycle.
According to this forecast, upcoming solar activity will be the weakest in the last 200 years.
(October 6, 2021)
The official forecast by the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel (made in 2019, and visualized by the red line above) called for a weak cycle 25, peaking in July 2025. And while things are currently tracking slightly ahead of schedule, NOAA don’t believe that the cycle will peak any higher than SC24. Instead, they simply see the peak arriving earlier, in late-2024 (rather than mid-2025). If this plays out it would of course mean an earlier start to Solar Cycle 26, too …
(Oct 7, 2019)
The research, according to the team, will help monitor and evaluate the influence of solar activities and their implications on the Earth’s climate. The astrophysicists’ team included experts from Ahmedabad’s Physical Research Laboratory (PRL), Japan, and China.
(October 1, 2010)
It’s cold, dusty, and bereft of planets, but the outskirts of our solar system are anything but dull, according to increasing evidence from NASA’s Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) craft.
As charged particles flow out from the sun, they eventually bump up against interstellar medium—the relatively empty areas between stars. These interactions „inflate“ a protective bubble that shields Earth and the entire solar system from potentially harmful cosmic rays (solar system pictures).
(05.04.2019)
The cooling near solar minimum is natural and specific to the thermosphere. The cooling thermosphere does not affect the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface where people live. The temperatures we experience on the ground do not get colder because of this solar cycle. NASA and other climate researchers continue to see a warming trend in the troposphere. These two effects are ongoing but unrelated.
Nitric oxide and carbon dioxide play important roles in cooling the thermosphere.
(today)
While these things are still ongoing debates, one thing that NASA did find to happen during solar minimum was an increased number of galactic cosmic rays that reach Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Galactic cosmic rays are high energy particles accelerated toward the solar system by distant supernova explosions and other violent events in the galaxy.
(06.08.2013)
The polar switch also affects cosmic rays, which can endanger satellites and astronauts. Disturbances in the rays could even affect Earth’s climate.
The sheet acts as a „shield“ against these rays, and a wavy current sheet can be even more effective.
(18.10.2008)
The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, Nasa scientists have warned.
(15.07.2019)
Transiting the Sun is not very unusual for the ISS, which orbits the Earth about every 90 minutes, but getting one’s timing and equipment just right for a great image is rare. Strangely, besides that fake spot, in this recent two-image composite, the Sun lacked any real sunspots. The featured picture combines two images — one capturing the space station transiting the Sun — and another taken consecutively capturing details of the Sun’s surface. Sunspots have been rare on the Sun since the dawn of the current Solar Minimum, a period of low solar activity. For reasons not yet fully understood, the number of sunspots occurring during both the previous and current solar minima have been unusually low.
(26.01.2012)
Livingston and Penn provided the first hard estimate of Solar Cycle 25 amplitude based on a physical model. That estimate is 7, which would make it the smallest solar cycle for over 300 years.
This is figure 2 from their paper:
Livingston and Penn have been tracking the decline in sunspot magnetic field, predicting that sunspots will disappear when the umbral magnetic field strength falls below 1,500 gauss, as per this figure from their 2010 paper:
(14.06.2011)
This time, however, the rush to the poles is more of a crawl, which means we could be headed toward a very weak solar maximum in 2013—and it may delay or even prevent the start of the next solar cycle.
Taken together, the three lines of evidence strongly hint that Solar Cycle 25 may be a bust, the scientists said today during a meeting of the American Astronomical Society in Las Cruces, New Mexico.
(10.05.2006)
How do you observe a belt that plunges 200,000 km below the surface of the sun?
„We do it using sunspots,“ Hathaway explains. Sunspots are magnetic knots that bubble up from the base of the conveyor belt, eventually popping through the surface of the sun. Astronomers have long known that sunspots have a tendency to drift—from mid solar latitudes toward the sun’s equator. According to current thinking, this drift is caused by the motion of the conveyor belt. „By measuring the drift of sunspot groups,“ says Hathaway, „we indirectly measure the speed of the belt.“
The cooling near solar minimum is natural and specific to the thermosphere. The cooling thermosphere does not affect the troposphere, the layer of the atmosphere closest to Earth’s surface where people live. The temperatures we experience on the ground do not get colder because of this solar cycle. NASA and other climate researchers continue to see a warming trend in the troposphere. These two effects are ongoing but unrelated.
Nitric oxide and carbon dioxide play important roles in cooling the thermosphere.
But Nasa images have revealed that the face of our star is looking ominously calm right now, prompting claims it’s reached a stage of its cycle called the solar minimum.
During the minimum, there are significantly fewer sunspots and its magnetic field weakens, allowing cosmic rays from outside our solar system to rain down on Earth.
(08.04.2019)
„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“
(01.10.2010)
„If we’ve learned anything from IBEX so far, it is that the models that we’re using for interaction of the solar wind with the galaxy were just dead wrong,“ David McComas, principal investigator for the IBEX program, said during a NASA press conference Thursday.
For starters, it’s been assumed that the heliosphere’s expansion and contraction follows the sun’s roughly 11-year activity cycle, during which the flow rate of charged particles, or solar wind, fluctuates.
(06.08.2013)
The polar switch also affects cosmic rays, which can endanger satellites and astronauts. Disturbances in the rays could even affect Earth’s climate.
The sheet acts as a „shield“ against these rays, and a wavy current sheet can be even more effective.
(8. April 2019)
„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“
(11. April 2019)
The decline in sunspot activity through cycle 24 was worrisome to some space weather scientists in that it suggested a return to a lengthy “solar drought,” reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum period of 1645-1715. Records show the sun was essentially spotless for this lengthy period, coinciding with the “Little Ice Age” in Europe and tickling the interest of scientists to wonder whether there is a cause-and-effect relationship between solar behavior and Earth’s climate.
(8. April 2019)
„We expect Solar Cycle 25 will be very similar to Cycle 24: another fairly weak cycle, preceded by a long, deep minimum,“ said panel co-chair Lisa Upton, Ph.D., solar physicist with Space Systems Research Corp. „The expectation that Cycle 25 will be comparable in size to Cycle 24 means that the steady decline in solar cycle amplitude, seen from cycles 21-24, has come to an end and that there is no indication that we are currently approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.“
(23. September 2008)
In a briefing today at NASA headquarters, solar physicists announced that the solar wind is losing power.
„The average pressure of the solar wind has dropped more than 20% since the mid-1990s,“ says Dave McComas of the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas. „This is the weakest it’s been since we began monitoring solar wind almost 50 years ago.“
(18.10.2008)
The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, Nasa scientists have warned.
Earth’s magnetic North Pole has drifted so fast that authorities have had to officially redefine the location of the magnetic North Pole. The extreme wandering of the North Pole caused increasing concerns over navigation, especially in high latitudes.
(11.3.2019)
Over the past three decades, the sun has been consistently dropping in activity. Maximum has been quieter than is typical; minimum has been particularly quiet. And this has caused some to make the false assumption that, as a result, Earth is going to cool.
(9.1.2019)
Something strange is going on at the top of the world. Earth’s north magnetic pole has been skittering away from Canada and towards Siberia, driven by liquid iron sloshing within the planet’s core. The magnetic pole is moving so quickly that it has forced the world’s geomagnetism experts into a rare move.
(12.5.2012)
„Having learned for nearly three decades about it, I was literally shocked when we found it was missing.“
(…)
Still, considering the rays‘ expected effects, Redfield said, „it seems obvious to me that there will be scenarios or times when the cosmic-ray flux on a planet is important and [is] having a major influence on the evolution of the planetary atmosphere or even on biological processes on its surface.“
(1.10.2010)
„If we’ve learned anything from IBEX so far, it is that the models that we’re using for interaction of the solar wind with the galaxy were just dead wrong,“ David McComas, principal investigator for the IBEX program, said during a NASA press conference Thursday.
For starters, it’s been assumed that the heliosphere’s expansion and contraction follows the sun’s roughly 11-year activity cycle, during which the flow rate of charged particles, or solar wind, fluctuates.
With the decrease of solar activity, the magnetic field of oursun is losing power too. This heliosphere shields us forming a gigantic bubble which surrounds and protects our solar system from harmful galactic cosmic rays, these high-energy particles that zip through the universe. Thanks to Voyagers 1 leaving the Solar system, we now have a good vision of it and of its shielding effect. It appears to be an indispensable protection for our fast moving throughout the Universe. But, with a weaker heliosphere Earth will begin to endure more and more the cosmic rays.
(6.9.2013) The flow of interstellar gas and dust through the solar system was thought to be unvarying, but Frisch et al. (p. 1080) show that there has been a significant variation of the direction of the flow of interstellar helium through the solar system over the past 40 years.
(18.10.2008) The protective bubble around the sun that helps to shield the Earth from harmful interstellar radiation is shrinking and getting weaker, Nasa scientists have warned.
(2011) The stationary wave structures in the spatial distribution of stratospheric ozone have a significant influence on the local radiative heating and therefore on planetary wave propagation, temperature, circulation and trace gas distributions in the stratosphere and mesosphere. We show that these effects of O3* , which is the zonally asymmetric component of ozone, are modified by the 11-year cycle in solar irradiation,
(11.11.2013) “Solar activity is declining very fast at the moment,” Mike Lockwood, a professor of space environmental physics at Britain’s Reading University, said, “we estimate faster than at any time in the last 9,300 years.”
(17.Januar 2014) Scientists are saying that the Sun is in a phase of „solar lull“ – meaning that it has fallen asleep – and it is baffling them.
(23.8.2017) Our source of energy and life at the center of our solar system was significantly below normal with respect to activity last month.
The measured sunspot number (SSN) was 18.3. That was only 36% of what is typical (51) this far into the solar cycle – calculated from the previous 23 solar cycles recorded.
We can’t count on waning solar activity to help bail us out of our climate-change problem in the near future, a new study suggests.
A team of scientists from the Center of Excellence in Space Sciences and Department of Physical Sciences at Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) Kolkata led by Prantika Bhowmik and Professor Dibyendu Nandi have dismissed the speculation ofessor Dibyendu Nandi have dismissed the speculation and claim ……………………..
(27.12.2017) From this linear regression we estimate a range in UV flux of 9.3% over solar cycle 22 and a reduction of 6.9% below solar cycle minimum under a grand minimum.
(6.12.2017) By Cycle 25 or 26, magnetic fields may be too weak to punch through the solar surface and form recognizable sunspots at all,
(30.7.2018) They believe that Cycle 25 will be smaller than the current cycle by approximately 25 percent.
(11.12.2013) Scientists also think they know why relatively few super-fast solar energetic particles, or SEPS, have been measured in Earth’s neighborhood during the current cycle, which began in early 2008. It has to do with a weakened interplanetary magnetic field, another characteristic of Solar Cycle 24, they say.