Archiv: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)


25.11.2025 - 18:24 [ UnderstandingWar.org ]

The Critical Importance of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast

(August 12, 2025)

– The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland).
– Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.
– Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in Donetsk Oblast. Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress belt.
– Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014.
– Russia’s failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine’s long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities.

20.11.2025 - 20:30 [ UnderstandingWar.org ]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2025

(November 19, 2025)

Key Takeaways

Russia killed at least 26 Ukrainian civilians and injured at least 139 on the night of November 18 to 19 during its combined missile and drone strikes that disproportionately impacted civilian areas.
US and Russian officials reportedly drafted a 28-point peace plan that amounts to Ukraine’s full capitulation and would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
The reported proposed peace plan would deprive Ukraine of critical defensive positions and capabilities necessary to defend against future Russian aggression, apparently in exchange for nothing.
This reported peace plan is fundamentally the same as Russia’s 2022 Istanbul demands, which Russia presented to Ukraine when the circumstances on the battlefield appeared to favor Russia more heavily.
Russia’s long-held demands are dependent on the false premise that a Russian battlefield victory is inevitable.
Ukraine’s interdiction efforts are preventing Russian forces from using vehicles and concentrating manpower in Pokrovsk and are likely slowing down Russia’s rate of advance within the town.
Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Hulyaipole.

12.08.2025 - 19:41 [ UnderstandingWar.org ]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 11, 2025

It is premature to call the Russian advances in the Dobropillya area an operational-level breakthrough, though Russian forces very likely seek to mature their tactical advances into an operational-level breakthrough in the coming days. Russian forces used a similar tactical penetration in mid-April 2024 to facilitate the seizure of operationally significant territory northwest of Avdiivka.[32] The next several days in the Pokrovsk area of operations will likely be critical for Ukraine’s ability to prevent accelerated Russian gains north and northwest of Pokrovsk.

15.03.2025 - 07:52 [ Institute for the Study of War (ISW) ]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 14, 2025

(March 14, 2025)

ISW has observed no geolocated evidence to indicate that Russian forces have encircled a significant number of Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast or elsewhere along the frontline in Ukraine.

11.01.2025 - 17:44 [ Institute for the Study of War (ISW) ]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2025

– Ukrainian forces struck Russia‘s state-owned Kombinat Kristal oil storage facility near Engels, Saratov Oblast on the night of January 7 to 8.
– Ukrainian forces struck a command post of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) (Southern Military District [SMD]) on January 8 in occupied Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast.
– Russian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast, in Toretsk, and near Kurakhove.
– Russian forces are increasingly using drones attached to fiber optic cables in Ukraine.

11.01.2025 - 17:32 [ Newsweek ]

Kursk Map Shows Russia‘s Rapid Advances in Ukraine-Held Territory

(January 9, 2025)

According to the D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces have advanced in Toretsk and near Kurakhove, cities located in Ukraine‘s eastern Donetsk Oblast, while also continuing to push back Kyiv‘s forces in the Kursk region.

25.11.2024 - 17:34 [ Institute for the Study of War ]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2024

Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023.

25.11.2024 - 17:22 [ Newsweek ]

Ukraine War Map Reveals Russia‘s Rapid Front Line Advances

Russian forces have been advancing far more quickly in Donetsk region in recent weeks than they did for the whole of last year, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), whose map shows the state of play on the front line.

The Washington, D.C., think tank said on Sunday that recent Russian gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka showed that the war „is not stalemated“ and the Donetsk region is „becoming increasingly fluid“ with the latest Russian advances. Newsweek has emailed the Russian and Ukrainian defense ministries for comment.