(March 3, 2026)

Independent Turkish press described two possible scenarios for Turkish military action: an early-stage push to establish border shelters for a refugee crisis, and later incursions into Iran to secure a buffer zone if the Iranian state fails. Turkey’s intervention in northern Iraq—combining extensive airstrikes with a network of ground outposts in a mountainous, insurgent-sheltering hinterland—holds clues as to what such a buffer zone might look like in Iran. Nevertheless, the magnitude of PJAK or Kurdish coalition activity in a collapsing Iran would be the final determinant.