Beijing is unlikely to attack Taiwan next year, given security and economic deterrents, including its belief that an amphibious assault could fail and that the technological, supply chain and investor costs would be huge, according to a US threat assessment released on Wednesday.

The intelligence overview appeared to walk back a projection by the Pentagon last year that Beijing wanted to take the self-governing island by force as early as 2027 and comes as US President Donald Trump takes a more conciliatory tone towards China.