(19 October 2023)

The United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) have for over a decade negotiated without success the terms of an agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation. These negotiations have intensified recently in the context of US efforts to broker a normalisation agreement between the KSA and Israel, which have included discussions about how the US could solidify its own support for Saudi Arabia. On the 7th of October 2023, Hamas terrorists appeared to drive a stake through the heart of the US effort to broker Israel-KSA normalisation. This has sent shockwaves through the region, and the full implications remain uncertain. However, it seems likely that in the longer run, rationales for normalisation and for US nuclear engagement with Riyadh will remain, reflecting the fact that the Hamas attacks underscored that a future nuclear-armed Iran would be a yet more formidable adversary for both Israel and the KSA.