(26.03.2020)

Three different scenarios under which the model closely reproduces the reported death counts in the UK up to 19/03/2020​ are presented in ​Figure 1​. Red and green colours represent solutions attached respectively to transmission scenarios with R​0​=2.75 and R​0​=2.25 (reflecting variation in estimates of R​0in literature) with the proportion of the population at risk being distributed around 1%.