(May 2, 2025)

The 2015 JCPOA was formed within a multilateral framework based on necessity but ultimately failed under political pressure from its opponents. However, today’s conditions are different. The bilateral negotiation process presents a more favorable path, influenced by Trump’s ambitions and changing regional dynamics. Although obstacles remain, particularly Israel’s continued hope to persuade the United States to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities and its concern that the United States will focus on East Asia and reduce its military presence in the Middle East after an agreement with Iran, as well as the inclusion of Iran’s missile industry in the agreement, which could lead to a deadlock, the six factors outlined here indicate that diplomacy has once again found an opportunity to achieve a faster and more durable agreement.