When the poll only included those who were certain, Trump had a slight lead of 46 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted between October 15 and October 18 among 933 likely Texas voters.

The poll included 180 respondents who said they had already cast ballots in early voting, which began in Texas on October 13. Among those who already voted, 57 percent said they had voted for Biden, compared to 41 percent for the president.