27.10.2020 - 14:32 [ FiveThirtyEight.com ]

Is Joe Biden Toast If He Loses Pennsylvania?

Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?

No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania, which isn’t great but is also higher than, say, Trump’s overall chances on Election Day 2016.