Portugal has 4.3 billion euros of bonds coming due on April 15, and a further 4.9 billion euros in June; the weeks before these redemptions would be logical times to take a bailout.

But if Portugal retains access to the debt market to refinance those bonds, and is willing to accept very high yields, it may be able to avoid taking a bailout for many more months; after June, it will face no more bond redemptions this year.