1)Yet another eurozone crisis in the spring if not before, when Spain and Italy have to refinance in aggregate over €400 billion of bonds. The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normallyable to respond to a crisis and I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term. We give it only a one in five chance of surviving in its present form for ten years…

3)Germany to be the Western economic superstaragain. German performance, in some sense subsidised by the eurowhich has the same effect for the German economy that the cheap renminbi policy has for the Chinese economy, is likely to continue to be stunning…