(25.03.) Which way will such a referendum go? It‘s impossible to say. If a snap vote were held tomorrow, people would unquestionably opt for withdrawal. The polls have been consistent for the past five years: when you exclude the don‘t knows, there is a solid 60:40 souverainiste majority. Whether that figure would hold throughout a lengthy campaign, in which the ‚Yes‘ side would enjoy a colossal financial advantage and the support of all the party leaderships, is a very different question.