Archiv: projections / forecasts


30.08.2020 - 07:21 [ theGuardian.com ]

Michael Moore warns that Donald Trump is on course to repeat 2016 win

The documentary film-maker Michael Moore has warned that Donald Trump appears to have such momentum in some battleground states that liberals risk a repeat of 2016 when so many wrote off Trump only to see him grab the White House.

“Sorry to have to provide the reality check again,” he said.

21.08.2020 - 16:53 [ @jvgraz / Twitter ]

If the Democrats get in power they will be absolutely merciless on the poor and vulnerable. They’ve been waiting four years to exact their revenge, and they are ready to rack up a body count.

15.07.2020 - 16:17 [ Nature.com ]

The end of world population growth

02 August 2001

There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting1, here we show that there is around an 85 per cent chance that the world’s population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world’s population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world’s population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today.

15.07.2020 - 16:11 [ DailyMail.co.uk ]

World population will start SHRINKING in 44 years: Major study claims humanity will peak at 9.7billion people in 2064 before dropping to 8.8bn by 2100 because of declining birth rates — and the UK will top out at 75million in 2063

This is projected to lead to a drop in the fertility rate of the world’s population, from an average of 2.37 children per woman — 237 children from every 100 women — to 1.66, or 166 children for every 100 women.

The fertility rate must be 2 for a population to remain stable and 2.1 for it to increase, the researchers said. To keep a community the same size a mother must, on average, not only replace herself but also the baby’s father.

24.04.2020 - 12:48 [ PoliticsHome.com ]

Alzheimer’s Society responds to joint statement from DHSC and CQC on the number of Covid-19 deaths in care homes

(22.04.2020)

Sally Copley, Director of Policy, Campaigns and Partnerships at Alzheimer’s Society, said:

“The true impact of the coronavirus in care homes is becoming increasingly clear, and that’s why we’re demanding swift Government action. With the further report today of a possible 2000 deaths just over Easter weekend, this is a frightening time for everyone with relatives with dementia in care homes. People with dementia’s lives matter, and every death is a terrible loss to a grieving family.

“We hear daily from desperately concerned families who want to know that the Government is doing all it can to keep people in care homes safe, and it is good to hear that the CQC is actively booking testing appointments for care staff.

22.04.2020 - 14:40 [ Washington Post ]

CDC director warns second wave of coronavirus is likely to be even more devastating

(21.04.2020)

“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”

“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.

18.04.2020 - 10:52 [ Jennifer Rubin, @WashingtonPost / Twitter ]

Cuomo: If you want to blame someone and fire someone for bade projections then fire CDC, WH coronavirus task force and Navarro who had huge projections

(17-04.2020)

18.04.2020 - 10:37 [ NBC News / Youtube ]

Live: NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo Holds Coronavirus Briefing | NBC News

(17.04.2020)

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo holds a briefing on the coronavirus pandemic as it spreads across New York state, which has the most positive cases in the United States.

09.04.2020 - 14:17 [ theHill.com ]

Fauci: ‚Looks like‘ US deaths will be lower than original projection

“Although one of the original models projected 100- to 200,000 deaths, as we’re getting more data and seeing the positive effect of mitigation, those numbers are going to be downgraded,” Fauci said on Fox News. “I don’t know exactly what the numbers are going to be, but right now it looks like it’s going to be less than the original projection.”